SirLagsalott

campaigns
WIP - 2017 Virginia Governor Election

21 posts in this topic

I've been spending a lot of time working on a new PI scenario, the 2017 Virginia governor's race.

As one of only two gubernatorial elections in 2017, the Virginia race is going to be watched heavily by the media and by the nation as a referendum on Donald Trump's first year in office. In this important battleground state, who will prevail? Will the Democrats continue to hold this important seat? Can the Republicans reclaim the seat they almost won in 2013? Can the Libertarians have another breakthrough, or possibly even win? Much remains to be found out.

As of 4/16/2017, I am around 35% complete. There are tons more counties and independent cities that need to be added, a few more candidates (and what-if candidates), primaries, popular vote, and other tweaks needed before this is released.

Here are a few screenshots from the current build:

Screenshot 2017-04-16 14.26.29.pngScreenshot 2017-04-08 08.49.49.png

Of course, the percentages are not accurate yet because not all the regions have been added. When that happens it'll be more realistic.

Current candidates:

(R) Mr. Ed Gillespie

(R) Spvr. Corey Stewart

(R) Rep. Rob Wittman

(R) Rep. Barbara Comstock (off)

(R) Fmr. Att. Gen. Ken Cuccinelli (off)

(R) Fmr. Rep. Eric Cantor (off)

(D) Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam

(D) Fmr. Rep. Tom Perriello

(D) Rep. Gerry Connolly (off)

(L) Robert Sarvis

(L) Bill Redpath

Candidates not yet added but will eventually be added:

(R) State Sen. Frank Wagner

(D) Fmr. Sec. Anne Holton

(D) Att. Gen. Mark Herring

This is in an early stage, so please give suggestions for candidates and issues I can add!

 

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As a Virginia resident and politics enthusiast, I love this. I would say some potential "what if" candidates could be Gerry Connolly (rep from VA-11), Mark Herring (Attorney General), and Anne Holton (wife of Tim Kaine and former VA sec of education) for Democrats, and Barbara Comstock (rep from VA-10), Eric Cantor, and Ken Cuccinelli for Republicans. I would also be sure to add all of the interesting potential lieutenant governors on both sides, it actually looks relatively plausible that VA will have it's first woman lieutenant governor regardless of party.

As for issues, I think the proposed Dominion Pipeline would be an interesting one, even if it fell under the category of energy, I also think VA's planned 20 week abortion ban will play a role (abortion Ed, anyone?), along with restoring voting rights to felons, which McAuliffe pushed forward with.

Endorses could be the reps and senators, the current governor, Sanders (as he's decided to insert himself), Fiorina, and NARAL.

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Thank you for those!

Herring, Comstock, Cuccinelli, and Cantor were going to be added. Thank you for Connolly and Holton - they make perfect sense but I overlooked them. The issues are very helpful and will be added soon. The endorsers will be added as soon as I get all the regions in (there are 133 I have to make!), but Fiorina will be a what-if candidate who can endorse if she doesn't run.

Thanks for the suggestions!

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1 hour ago, SirLagsalott said:

Thank you for those!

Herring, Comstock, Cuccinelli, and Cantor were going to be added. Thank you for Connolly and Holton - they make perfect sense but I overlooked them. The issues are very helpful and will be added soon. The endorsers will be added as soon as I get all the regions in (there are 133 I have to make!), but Fiorina will be a what-if candidate who can endorse if she doesn't run.

Thanks for the suggestions!

Pedantic, OCD, perfectionistic, nitpicking note (nothing big) - Sarvis, who I believe you said was a Libertarian, should have yellow as his party colour, as that's the official party colour of the Libertarian Party of the USA (probably after the background of the Gadson Flag, I'd guess) - dark-green is the official party colour of the US Reform Party. Otherwise, looking very promising. :)

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Just now, Patine said:

Pedantic, OCD, perfectionistic, nitpicking note (nothing big) - Sarvis, who I believe you said was a Libertarian, should have yellow as his party colour, as that's the official party colour of the Libertarian Party of the USA (probably after the background of the Gadson Flag, I'd guess) - dark-green is the official party colour of the US Reform Party. Otherwise, looking very promising. :)

I used the 2014 Maine gubernatorial election campaign as a base to avoid having to de-clutter tons of endorsers. During every playtest I made a mental note of fixing the color and forgot later. I'll do it for real now, thanks!

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I was just looking at this a little while ago. I am looking forwrd to all the elections in 2017. The next up is KS-4 on the 11th. An NJ Gov would be good too.

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11 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

I was just looking at this a little while ago. I am looking forwrd to all the elections in 2017. The next up is KS-4 on the 11th. An NJ Gov would be good too.

Someone already made NJ. I'm doing Virginia primarily because it's where I live. My main issue with KS-4 and NJ is that they're both pretty much safe seats, while Virginia is a tossup.

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Just now, SirLagsalott said:

. My main issue with KS-4 and NJ is that they're both pretty much safe seats, while Virginia is a tossup.

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Oh im not advocating for a KS-4 scenario just I am excited for the races this year. And I do believe that unfortunately you are correct about NJ.

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Does anyone have suggestions for candidate attributes? Currently they are:

Screenshot 2017-04-12 09.08.37.png

I know several candidates are missing because I haven't made their attributes yet. Does anyone have suggestions for attributes for Cuccinelli, Herring, Cantor, Connolly, and Holton?

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On 4/12/2017 at 9:10 AM, SirLagsalott said:

Does anyone have suggestions for candidate attributes? Currently they are:

Screenshot 2017-04-12 09.08.37.png

I know several candidates are missing because I haven't made their attributes yet. Does anyone have suggestions for attributes for Cuccinelli, Herring, Cantor, Connolly, and Holton?

Definitely would make Corey Stewart's leadership 3 (or maybe even lower), and lower Barbara Comstock's integrity to 3.

Cuccinelli: leadership: 3 integrity: 4 experience: 3 issue familiarity: 3 charisma: 3 stamina: 3 debating: 2

Herring: leadership: 4 integrity: 3 experience: 4 issue familiarity: 3 charisma: 3 stamina: 3 debating: 3

Cantor: leadership: 4 integrity: 3 experience: 4 issue familiarity: 3 charisma: 2 stamina: 3 debating: 3

Connolly should be all 3s, as he is a fairly balanced candidates.

Holton would be all 3s excluding a 2 for experience and 4 for integrity.

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Update. Cuccinelli, Cantor, Connolly have been added along with the changes suggested by @michaelsdiamonds. Added a bunch of new regions but there's still a long way to go.

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24 minutes ago, SirLagsalott said:

Update. Cuccinelli, Cantor, Connolly have been added along with the changes suggested by @michaelsdiamonds. Added a bunch of new regions but there's still a long way to go.

I'm looking forward to the release of the scenario.

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Very good scenario, please do it.

If you need help to complete it plese ask me, I will be very glad to help you.

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Thanks for the support, everyone! If I keep pace with what I've done so far it should be ready in maybe a week or two. If anyone has any information on how delegates work in the Virginia primaries, I'd really appreciate it. It also looks like a Libertarian, Cliff Hyra, has declared his candidacy. There was also a Republican debate last night I need to analyze for attributes and policy positions (I've currently been getting them from ontheissues, but things change).

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Screenshot 2017-04-20 15.20.33.png

Screenshot of a strong Sarvis finish. As you can see I'm far from finishing the regions. Just for testing, the election night starts at 8pm and ends at 10. I don't know the real poll closing times (but I know Fairfax finishes late), but I'll get there eventually.

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I plan on returning to this now that the campaign is in full swing. 

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Could you post an image of the starting %'s (map) for a Northam vs. Gillespie matchup would be?

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4 hours ago, vcczar said:

Could you post an image of the starting %'s (map) for a Northam vs. Gillespie matchup would be?

I don't even have all the regions done yet, but what I'm going to do is take the percentages from 2013 (in which McAuliffe won by 2.6%) and modify the number in all regions based on poll margins (For example, if Northam leads Gillespie by 4 points in most polls, the percentages in all regions will swing 1.4% towards the Dems). It's really complicated to get this right, given the enormous number of regions involved. 

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1 minute ago, SirLagsalott said:

I don't even have all the regions done yet, but what I'm going to do is take the percentages from 2013 (in which McAuliffe won by 2.6%) and modify the number in all regions based on poll margins (For example, if Northam leads Gillespie by 4 points in most polls, the percentages in all regions will swing 1.4% towards the Dems). It's really complicated to get this right, given the enormous number of regions involved. 

@victorraiders we have someone who needs help with regions here.

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