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vcczar

Election 2020: Update

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Update:

State power shifted

- The map has been updated based on Trump's rather consistent Republican direction. As such, the weaknesses I projected for him in extremely conservative areas, or in very moderate conservative areas have been stabilized. Libertarian Party has been diminished, which has bolstered the Republicans. 

- Additionally, voting trends have been looked into a lot more. Ohio goes from tossup to Red. Minnesota and Arizona are added as tossups. 

- Democrats slightly bolstered by the diminishing of Green and Libertarian parties, in states in which Libertarians probably drained slightly more from Democrats -- i.e. Maine, Washington, Oregon. Green Party has been diminished with the idea that the more practical ideas from the Sanders wing will be adopted for party unity, as well as some impractical ones which would be purposely unfullfilled as campaign promises, unless Dems get a supermajority in Congress. 

Simulations (10 elections each): 

Overall, Trump wins reelection most of the time, but, as in 2016, the majority of the people voting against him most of the time in every scenario. Starbucks CEO teamed with Sen. Bill Nelson of Florida stands the greatest chance of defeating Trump:

- Trump/Pence def. Warren/Castro 7 to 3, but with Warren averaging a higher popular vote %.

- Trump/Pence def. Booker/Gabbard 7 to 2, with 1 tie. Booker averaging a high popular vote%

- Trump/Pence def. Gillibrand/Sherrod Brown 7 to 3, with Gillibrand averaging a higher pop vote%

- Trump/Pence def. Clinton/Gavin Newsom 6 to 4, with Clinton averaging a higher pop vote%

- Trump/Pence def. Franken/Kyrsten Sinema 9 to 1, with Franken averaging a higher pop vote%

- Trump/Pence def. Newsom/Booker 7 to 3, with Newsom averaging a higher pop vote %

- Starbucks CEO Schultz/Bill Nelson ties Trump/Pence 5 to 5, with Schultz averaging higher in the pop vote%

- Trump/Pence def. Biden/Buttigieg 6 to 3, with 1 tie. Biden averages a higher pop vote%

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Great scenario! You have did an objective job crafting it, and it appears all of your personal biases have been set aside as you made it (besides the events, of course, which are hilarious)

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3 hours ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

Great scenario! You have did an objective job crafting it, and it appears all of your personal biases have been set aside as you made it (besides the events, of course, which are hilarious)

The events are mostly going to be toned down. I may intensify events involving Russia, as well as have Trump say more things that are completely untrue (like Obama wiretapping him). I want the preprimary battle in the scenario to be really difficult for him, so it seems rational that Conservatives might join in the race. As it stands, he wipes out the competition, which may be in fact what happens, but until his approval rating gets to over 50% for a consistent amount of time, I'll make him have a tougher time than most incumbents. 

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I love this scenario but I'd like to see:

1) options to have Al Franken and Tammy Duckworth as presidential candidates (and thus also VP picks) and Jason Kander as a possible VP

2) Either don't have Pence resign or at least let him be an option, I can't really see his resignation happening IRL

Other than those two requests, excellent job!

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5 hours ago, Bruce Fischer said:

I love this scenario but I'd like to see:

1) options to have Al Franken and Tammy Duckworth as presidential candidates (and thus also VP picks) and Jason Kander as a possible VP

2) Either don't have Pence resign or at least let him be an option, I can't really see his resignation happening IRL

Other than those two requests, excellent job!

I've updated the scenario. It's either in this post or another. Pence doesn't resign anymore. Franken is a candidate. I'll probably make Duckworth a VP option. Kander, I'll look into. 

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A few more candidates:

96 year old Jimmy Carter (Overpowered joke)

Bernie Sanders (another oldie)

Al Gore anybody?

Michael Dukakis (Him and Gore in a primary would be called the losers bracket.)

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On 3/21/2017 at 2:26 PM, vcczar said:

I've updated the scenario. It's either in this post or another. Pence doesn't resign anymore. Franken is a candidate. I'll probably make Duckworth a VP option. Kander, I'll look into. 

Ah OK, is there a new download or no?

45 minutes ago, LokiLoki22 said:

A few more candidates:

96 year old Jimmy Carter (Overpowered joke)

Bernie Sanders (another oldie)

Al Gore anybody?

Michael Dukakis (Him and Gore in a primary would be called the losers bracket.)

Gore/Dukakis 2020 FTW!

Heck, actually, why not Carter/Mondale 2020?

PO-grits-and-fritz-button_busy_beaver_button_museum.png

(doesn't rhyme anymore :P)

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41 minutes ago, Bruce Fischer said:

Ah OK, is there a new download or no?

Gore/Dukakis 2020 FTW!

Heck, actually, why not Carter/Mondale 2020?

PO-grits-and-fritz-button_busy_beaver_button_museum.png

(doesn't rhyme anymore :P)

There isn't a download yet. I need to fix the events. It will probably take a few weeks, because I got other things to do. 

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@vcczar IDK if you've changed it, but I noticed this in the information section of the general election map:

Capture.PNG

You've got Hillary winning the 2016 election. I poked around a bit and it appears this is the map you predicted:

map.PNG

(basically the real 2016 map, but Clinton won PA, WI, IA, and MI, which wasn't an unreasonable projection as late as the morning of November 8th)

I assume you'll change this at some point, right?

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18 minutes ago, Bruce Fischer said:

@vcczar IDK if you've changed it, but I noticed this in the information section of the general election map:

Capture.PNG

You've got Hillary winning the 2016 election. I poked around a bit and it appears this is the map you predicted:

map.PNG

(basically the real 2016 map, but Clinton won PA, WI, IA, and MI, which wasn't an unreasonable projection as late as the morning of November 8th)

I assume you'll change this at some point, right?

You know, I don't even know where you're seeing that. Whatever it is, I didn't mess with it, so that was the default when I made the scenario. 

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4 minutes ago, vcczar said:

You know, I don't even know where you're seeing that. Whatever it is, I didn't mess with it, so that was the default when I made the scenario. 

Under regions, you can set the party that is the incumbent (won last election). This way the player can see swings.

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7 minutes ago, jvikings1 said:

Under regions, you can set the party that is the incumbent (won last election). This way the player can see swings.

Oh, that's what he's talking about. I know about that. Thanks for clarifying. 

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7 minutes ago, vcczar said:

You know, I don't even know where you're seeing that. Whatever it is, I didn't mess with it, so that was the default when I made the scenario. 

Capture.PNG

Capture2.PNG

Capture3.PNG

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Just an update: It will probably be mid-to-late April before I update this scenario. I'm a college professor and this is the busy time of the year. For the most part, all I need to do is add some events and slightly amend those that I haven't already amended. 

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This is my favorite PI campaign anyone has made. Hilarious, expansive and never boring. Thank you!

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